The Polymarket Bubble: Everyone Is Betting on the US Election

On Sunday, a quote-tweet from Musk sent former presdient Donald Trump’s election odds skyrocketing on the election betting platform Polymarket.

“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets,” wrote Musk. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

The day after Musk’s tweet, Trump was up by nearly 10 points on the platform.

These aren’t actual polls—Polymarket is a decentralized betting market that operates similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, except bettors can make wagers on almost everything. This year, however, one of the most popular markets is the one predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The company is leaning into it, endlessly posting election updates on its X account and reply-guying Musk.

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Polymarket has had a lot of success this year. The pro-Trump billionaire Peter Thiel and ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin announced they had raised around $70 million in funding for the company this past May. The site’s monthly traffic has grown to around 20 times more than what it was at the time of the investment, according to data from Similarweb.

Betting markets also secured a big win earlier this month when a US appeals court gave Kalshi, a predictions startup, the green light to offer markets on which party would take over Congress next year. While the case hasn’t been completely resolved, it likely won’t be decided before election day. This means election markets are here to stay, much to the joy of political influencers and elites like Musk online.

As of Wednesday afternoon, other betting sites PredictIt and Kalshi had vice president Kamala Harris up anywhere from one to three points. Unlike Polymarket, these alternatives limit bettors to placing no more than $1,000 on elections. They’re also subject to US regulations. Being located offshore, Polymarket is free from those same restraints, and bettors can place millions of dollars in wagers on the election outcome without anyone knowing who they are. Which means even if US-based bettors are formally banned from the site, all anyone needs to do is download a VPN to get around the rules.

Still, Polymarket has made itself known across the aisle. In August, Polymarket hosted a party at the Democratic National Convention. The guest list for the event was impressive: It included White House domestic policy director Neera Tanden, Olivia Rodrigo’s ex-boyfriend producer Adam Faze, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who has supported a number of pro-crypto bills in the Senate.